Sensex at 7750!!!
If I am correct then it wasn't long ago when sensex's crossing of 5000 created euphoria not only in the market but throughout the business circles in the country. Questions were raised if the SENSEX could maintain these levels and experts recommended to go for cash rather than equity, well they seemed correct for once as the sensex came crashing down from 5500 levels to 4500 level in may 2004 but then it was not due to any natural corrections but the fall was news triggered as the markets feared left parties entering the government .
This was about an year ago and now the sensex stands at above 7500 and the same questions are being asked, but this time the experts seemed very confident about a fall, infact they are repeating the same statement since SENSEX reached 6000, even a single point fall is seen as the indication of up coming correction. Well it seems our experts forgot what happened at Dow Jones when an index bound by 1000 pt limit crossed 10000 in virtually no time at all.
This rise in the index is here to stay and markets holding up even after not so interesting numbers from Infosys and other tech giant is a very good indicator of this fact. What I'm saying doesnt rule out the possibility of corrections, we may see a 2-3% correction in a day but the SENSEX would bounce back in no time at all, corrections may also be stock specific and the index can remain unaffected even if the stock is an Infosys or Reliance.
So what about the future, well in 1999 the combined EPS of all the companies on SENSEX was 167 and the index was at 4200 levels ie 25 times overvaluation was there, now the EPS is 485 and the index is at 7600 level ie. 15.5 times overvaluation, the EPS of companies on SENSEX is expected to be around 547 by end of this FY. Estimating a modest PE of 16 times the markets should be around 8752 by end of year, considering the overvaluation of 25 times in 99 this should be a modest estimate.
Estimating the behaviour of stock markets is a dangerous business as the markets always tries the best to prove you wrong but still this is a good time to invest, so come out of the shell and take some risk.
This was about an year ago and now the sensex stands at above 7500 and the same questions are being asked, but this time the experts seemed very confident about a fall, infact they are repeating the same statement since SENSEX reached 6000, even a single point fall is seen as the indication of up coming correction. Well it seems our experts forgot what happened at Dow Jones when an index bound by 1000 pt limit crossed 10000 in virtually no time at all.
This rise in the index is here to stay and markets holding up even after not so interesting numbers from Infosys and other tech giant is a very good indicator of this fact. What I'm saying doesnt rule out the possibility of corrections, we may see a 2-3% correction in a day but the SENSEX would bounce back in no time at all, corrections may also be stock specific and the index can remain unaffected even if the stock is an Infosys or Reliance.
So what about the future, well in 1999 the combined EPS of all the companies on SENSEX was 167 and the index was at 4200 levels ie 25 times overvaluation was there, now the EPS is 485 and the index is at 7600 level ie. 15.5 times overvaluation, the EPS of companies on SENSEX is expected to be around 547 by end of this FY. Estimating a modest PE of 16 times the markets should be around 8752 by end of year, considering the overvaluation of 25 times in 99 this should be a modest estimate.
Estimating the behaviour of stock markets is a dangerous business as the markets always tries the best to prove you wrong but still this is a good time to invest, so come out of the shell and take some risk.
posted by Shrey at 11:43 PM
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